EV 431 Weather Forecasting Contest Website

EV 431 Weather Forecasting Contest Website

As part of the Air class, you have the opportunity to show off your forecasting skills and maybe boost your grade a little. The forecast contest is voluntary, but I encourage each of you to participate.

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UPDATE (FEB 7): BY MAJORITY VOTE, WE WILL BE FORECASTING A TOTAL OF 10 DAYS. REMAINING FORECASTS, WHEN TO MAKE THEM: SUNDAY NIGHT (FEB 10), MONDAY NIGHT (FEB 11)

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GENERAL RULES

When to forecast (*** UPDATED DURING CLASS ON FRI, 1 FEB!!! ***):

Make a forecast on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (Sun-Thurs). We will no longer make a forecast on Friday! The deadline for submitting your forecast to me is 11:00 pm. Please send forecasts via email (and any questions/comments) to:

jim@atmos.colostate.edu

The forecast timeframe is midnight-midnight, or, beginning 1 hour after the submission deadline. For example, the forecast you submit on Monday evening will be for the period midnight Monday night to midnight Tuesday night.

What to forecast:

High temperature, low temperature, and precipitation for the Colorado Springs airport. Guess the high and low temperatures to the nearest degree F. For precipitation, choose one of the following categories:

None: Less than 0.01” rain or melted snow (includes 0.00” and “Trace”)

Light: 0.01-0.05” (liq. equivalent… 0.05” liq. is equivalent to 0.5” snow)

Moderate: 0.06-0.20” (liquid equivalent… 0.20” liquid is equivalent to 2” snow)

Heavy: 0.21”+ (liquid equivalent… more than 2” snow)

Verifying the forecasts:

The National Weather Service’s daily climate report will be used to verify the high and low temps and precip amount between midnight and midnight.

Scoring and payoff:

For each degree F you are off on the high, you will be assessed one error point… same for the low temp. For each category in precipitation that you are off, you will get 3 error points. For example, if your forecast is H/L/P = 34/18/light and the observed weather is 35/16/moderate, your total error points that day would be 1+2+3 = 6.

We’ll forecast 10 times, beginning Tues 29 Jan and ending Monday night, 11 Feb (your last forecast should be made on Monday night!). Your total error points from each day will be summed. The person with the fewest total error points will receive 2% added to their final grade. The people with the fewest error points for each of the high temperature, low temperature, and precipitation categories will each receive 1% added to their final grade. To spread the wealth, you can’t win multiple categories (i.e., if you win the overall contest, you’re out of the running for, say, the low temperature category).

Missed forecasts:

If you miss a forecast for any day, you will receive the same number of error points as the worst forecaster that day, for each category (high, low, precip).

Other notes:

• Use any forecasting resources you want

• Forecasts must be submitted individually, but you can discuss your predictions with other classmates to compare.

FORECAST RESOURCES

• The atmospheric science community works on UTC (Universal Time Coordinate; also called “Z” time), where:

00Z Tues = 00 UTC Tues = 5:00 pm Mon MST

06Z Tues = 06 UTC Tues = 11:00 pm Mon MST

12Z Tues = 12 UTC Tues = 5:00 am Tues MST

18Z Tues = 18 UTC Tues = 11:00 am Tues MST

That said, we’re forecasting from midnight-midnight MST, or 07Z-07Z.

• Numbers:

• *** Most recent weather observations from Colorado Springs ***

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCOS.html

• Model Output Statistics (MOS):

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KCOS

• How to read MOS files:

http://weather.cod.edu/notes/fous.html

• Pictures:

• CURRENT Non-surface (“upper-air” maps):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/

• CURRENT Denver sounding

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/dnr.gif

• CURRENT surface station plot (on colored map, click on “DEN” for Denver):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

• MOST RECENT national radar image

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KUSA&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20080130&endTime=-1&duration=0

• Satellite image webpage:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/

• FORECAST models #1:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=gfs

• FORECAST models #2… what time is it currently?

Before 4:00 pm? http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_models/eta212_12UTC.shtml

4:00-9:00 pm? http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_models/eta212_18UTC.shtml

After 9:00 pm? http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_models/eta212_00UTC.shtml

Note: For the above 3 websites, still images for each pressure surface and each forecast hour are available. FLI files (which my computer reads using QuickTime) are animations like the ones I’ve been showing in class).

PRELIMINARY RESULTS:

These are subject to change!

Day 9 results

Day 10 results